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Understanding Absorption Rates in New Construction: New Hanover County Market Analysis

New construction homes in Wilmington area

How quickly is new construction selling in our market? It's a question builders ask before breaking ground, and one investors consider when evaluating development opportunities. The answer requires looking beyond headline numbers to understand what's actually happening at the project level.

I pulled MLS data covering all new construction sales in New Hanover County from January 2024 through December 2025, along with current active inventory as of February 6, 2026. Here's what the numbers show.

The Big Picture: 1,210 Sales Over 24 Months

New Hanover County recorded 1,210 new construction closings between January 2024 and December 2025. That breaks down to 638 sales in 2024 and 572 in 2025, representing a 10.3% year-over-year decline in transaction volume.

The monthly absorption rate averaged 53 units in 2024, slowing to roughly 48 units per month in 2025. With 263 active new construction listings currently on the market, that puts us at approximately 5.7 months of inventory. By traditional metrics, anything under 6 months favors sellers.

Metric Current Status
Total Sales (2024-2025) 1,210 units
2024 Sales 638 units
2025 Sales 572 units
Year-over-Year Change -10.3%
Current Active Inventory 263 units
6-Month Avg. Absorption 46 units/month
Months of Inventory 5.7 months

Product Mix: Single-Family Dominates, Townhomes Gaining Ground

Single-family detached homes accounted for 76% of all new construction sales (921 units), while townhomes made up 23% (281 units). A handful of condo and multifamily transactions rounded out the balance.

The absorption rates tell different stories for each product type. Single-family homes moved at 38 units per month on average, with a median days-on-market of 41 days in Wilmington proper. Townhomes absorbed at about 12 units per month, but with a notably higher median DOM of 61 days.

Product Type Units Sold Avg. Price Monthly Pace Avg. DOM
Single-Family 921 $656,000 38.4/mo 86 days
Townhome 281 $599,000 11.7/mo 160 days

The higher average DOM for townhomes includes some projects with extended sellout timelines, which pulls up the average. Looking at median DOM provides a cleaner picture: 41 days for single-family versus 61 for townhomes in core Wilmington locations.

Where the Sales Are Happening

Wilmington city limits captured 72% of all new construction activity (870 sales), followed by Castle Hayne at 19% (234 sales). Beach communities combined for 106 sales, representing about 9% of total volume but commanding significantly higher price points.

Location Sales Market Share Median Price Median DOM
Wilmington 870 72% $571,000 44 days
Castle Hayne 234 19% $485,000 80 days
Beach Communities 106 9% $844,000 115 days

Beach communities (Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach) command a median price of $844,000 and a median price-per-square-foot of $411, roughly 60% higher than the county average of $254/SF. The trade-off is longer marketing times, with a median DOM of 115 days.

Top-Performing Communities by Volume

Riverlights continues to lead the market in sheer volume. The master-planned community recorded 261 sales over the two-year period, absorbing at 10.9 units per month. Median price landed at $546,000 with a 41-day median DOM.

Community Sales Median Price Absorption Median DOM
Riverlights 261 $546,000 10.9/mo 41 days
East and Mason 113 $745,000 4.7/mo 25 days
Parsons Mill 113 $418,000 4.7/mo 39 days
Timbers at Whiskey Branch 54 $707,000 2.2/mo 1 day
Cottages at Bradley Creek 51 $659,000 2.1/mo 36 days

East and Mason stands out with the lowest median DOM at 25 days despite higher price points ($745,000 median). Timbers at Whiskey Branch shows the most aggressive absorption pattern, with most units going under contract almost immediately, suggesting strong presale activity.

The DOM Story: A Tale of Two Markets

New construction days-on-market data reveals a bifurcated market. Over 40% of all new construction sells within 30 days. Another 22% moves between 30 and 90 days. But nearly 20% sits on the market for 180 days or longer.

Days on Market Units % of Sales
Under 30 days 491 40.6%
30 to 60 days 156 12.9%
60 to 90 days 104 8.6%
90 to 180 days 225 18.6%
Over 180 days 234 19.3%

The takeaway: well-located, correctly-priced product moves quickly. The stale inventory tends to cluster in certain communities or reflects mispriced spec homes that missed their window.

What's Happening with Prices

Median sold prices dipped slightly year-over-year, from $566,000 in 2024 to $558,000 in 2025, a decline of 1.5%. But that headline number obscures what is actually happening with builder strategy.

Price per square foot actually increased from $247 in 2024 to $261 in 2025. Builders are delivering smaller, more efficient floor plans rather than cutting prices. The median sold price dropped because buyers are choosing smaller homes, not because per-foot values declined.

The list-to-sold price ratio tells another story about market discipline. New construction averaged 99.9% of list price at closing. Builders are holding firm on pricing, and buyers are paying asking prices. Properties over $1 million actually averaged 101.8% of list price, indicating competitive situations at the top of the market.

What This Means for Buyers, Builders, and Investors

For Buyers

The best product moves fast. If you are looking for new construction in an active community, expect competition. The 40% of homes selling in under 30 days suggests that waiting to decide often means missing out on preferred lots or floor plans.

For Builders

Location and pricing discipline remain the differentiators. Communities with strong identities and good locations (Riverlights, East and Mason, Timbers at Whiskey Branch) are absorbing steadily. The stale inventory tends to reflect either positioning problems or specs that did not match buyer demand.

For Investors

Lot acquisition and development deals should factor in realistic absorption timelines. At current pace, expect 10-12 months to sell out a 50-unit single-family project in a well-positioned location. Townhome projects may require 18-24 months depending on product mix and price point.

The Bottom Line

New Hanover County's new construction market remains healthy, though moderating from the pace of recent years. Transaction volume is down 10% year-over-year, but inventory remains tight at under 6 months of supply. Pricing has held firm, with builders adjusting product size rather than cutting per-foot values.

For anyone making decisions about buying, building, or investing in new construction locally, the data supports cautious optimism: demand continues to outpace supply, well-positioned product moves quickly, and the market is rewarding quality over quantity.

Data Sources and Methodology

Data Source: NCRMLS (North Carolina Regional MLS)

Sales Data Period: January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2025 (24 months)

Inventory Data: Active and Pending listings as of February 6, 2026

Geography: New Hanover County, NC (Wilmington, Wrightsville Beach, Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Castle Hayne)

Filter Criteria: New Construction only (Year Built 2023-2026), Residential (Single-Family, Townhome, Condo, Multifamily)

Absorption Rate Calculation: Trailing 6-month closed sales divided by 6, applied to current active inventory

Months of Inventory: Active listings / monthly absorption rate

Analysis Date: February 2026

Note: MLS data represents properties marketed through the Multiple Listing Service and may not capture all builder-direct or off-market transactions. Days on Market is calculated from MLS marketing start date to contract date.

About the Author: Will Daube is a real estate broker with Cadence Realty Corp in Wrightsville Beach, NC, specializing in builder services, investment properties, and luxury residential sales. He provides market analysis and sellout strategy for builders and developers throughout New Hanover and Brunswick Counties. Contact: will@cadencerealty.com | (910) 409-3605

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